Firing up future mobility – which sustainable energy source will power the vehicles of the future?

Will hydrogen become the renewable oil of the future or are battery-powered electric vehicles dominating the race toward green mobility? Can the two technologies coexist?

The course of mobility’s history never did run smooth. Technological disruption and innovation, policy changes and stringent regulations, new business models and changing customer needs have simultaneously challenged and shaped the future of mobility, forcing it to constantly reinvent itself. And now, it’s time to buckle up again as mobility is undergoing a fundamental shift that will reverberate across business and society for generations.

Today’s urgent need for a mobility revolution starts with the battle against climate change and more specifically, global carbon dioxide emissions. A broad decarbonisation of the transport segments will likely translate in the end of the internal combustion engines’ technology predominance. And that spells new opportunities for cleaner, zero-emission solutions such as batteries or fuel cells. These radically different systems are pushing car makers to the edge where they have to focus on a tech-fuelled reimagination of the car’s engine. But one thing is certain, the metamorphosis of the auto industry will be propelled by electrification.

Two sides of the same coin, battery and green hydrogen powered cars are both electric vehicles. While one is directly powered by electricity, the other one produces electricity in the car’s own efficient power plant through a chemical reaction known as reverse electrolysis. Both solutions are cutting edge in terms of ecological sustainability and do not produce harmful emissions when driven. Yet, while battery-powered electric vehicles have significant consequences for natural resources such as cobalt, nickel and lithium, which are key battery ingredients, hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have enjoyed remarkable progress and accelerated adoption, with young and urban buyers especially enthusiastic about their environmental implications. Going back a decade ago, BEV sales barely made a ripple in the global revenue pond of automakers. Today, with support from incentive programs, market dynamics have rapidly moved in favour of BEV manufacturing. The key to that growth was the technological improvement in lithium-ion batteries, which have seen a precipitous 85% drop in prices since 2010. In addition, new competitive dynamics between traditional OEMs have translated into an attractive and rich array of electric vehicles models. Together with a continuous expansion of the charging network, these developments led the global sales of EVs to surpass the one million mark in 2017 and to sit comfortably above two million in 2019.

While BEVs excel at short-haul travel and are great options for personal cars, their applications are limited by recharging time and range. Current breakthroughs in battery technologies have not addressed the issues of the bulky and heavy batteries required for heavy-duty transport. This is where hydrogen-powered vehicles shine. Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) offer increased flexibility through faster refuelling time, better range and stable performance even in cold weather. Thus, they are a viable option for long-haul commercial vehicles and could be vital for decarbonising sectors where emissions are particularly hard to reduce such as shipping and aviation. Moreover, innovative solutions such as the liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHC) have made it possible to safely store and transport large quantities of hydrogen through the existing fuel tank and supply infrastructure.

FCEVs are still relatively niche due to the chicken-and-egg dilemma: as long as there are only a handful of manufacturers commercialising this technology, the refuelling infrastructure is less likely to expand and, vice-versa, a thin network of refuelling stations will not help carmakers tip the balance towards production. But governments and large industry stakeholders around the world are making a concerted effort to break this impasse and to further accelerate the scale up of the technology. There are over 50 targets, mandates and policy incentives in place today to help make the hydrogen society a reality.

Despite the fact that hydrogen and batteries are often portrayed as competing technologies, their relative strengths and weaknesses clearly suggest that they should play complementary roles in a win-win approach to sustainability. Both technologies should be pursued in parallel as they are crucial for a rapid transition to a zero-emission economy. Since batteries and hydrogen-producing electrolysers apply the same scientific principles of electrochemistry, hydrogen stands to benefit from the knowledge acquired from manufacturing and scaling BEVs. Unlocking the synergies between these technologies will enable faster cost reductions while at the same time pushing hydrogen toward a golden era of advancement.

As we peer into a future where mobility has wiped out fossil fuels and is fully buzzing with electricity, it is of paramount importance to have policy makers, industry players and carmakers work together to scale up the right portfolio of clean technologies, as opposed to simply ceding the green-transport crown to the most preferred solution. The mutually beneficial relationship between BEVs and FCEVs implies that they could bring about the flexibility and diversity that consumers need. But will industry leaders accommodate for both technologies evenly?

To get the experts’ view on the dynamics that will shape the future of sustainable mobility, we engaged on September 24th in one of the most important debates around the fuels of the future. As part of STARTUP AUTOBAHN’s EXPO 8, Mark Freymüller (CEO of Hyundai Hydrogen Mobility), Jon Salkeld (Technology Director bp Advanced Mobility) and Björn Noack (Director Sustainable Mobility Strategy Powertrain at Bosch) explored these questions in a panel moderated by James Morris (editor at WhichEV). Watch the recorded panel:

Sources

• International Energy Agency (IEA), ‘Batteries and hydrogen technology: keys for a clean energy future’, 3 May 2020
• International Energy Agency (IEA), ‘Global EV Outlook 2020’, June 2020